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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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