Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
